WINTERBERRY GROUP EXPECTS 9.4-PERCENT GROWTH IN ITS ‘ANNUAL OUTLOOK’ FOR U.S. AD, MARKETING and DATA SPEND IN 2026 TO TOP $660B

-AI is fueling the reintegration of media, data and creative to drive productivity and marketing effectiveness, and annual marketing plans are being increasingly driven by shorter-term executions, fueled by tech, analytics and agentic investments-

NEW YORK – Artificial intelligence (AI) is translating from investment to practical application at a rapid pace in the U.S. advertising, marketing and data landscape, according to an annual report from the strategic consultancy Winterberry Group – with overall media expenditures predicted to top $664.2 billion – 9.4-percent growth over 2025 – and continued market share shifts from offline media to digital, data-driven channels. 

The ad marketplace in 2026 will also gain stimulus from the World Cup, Winter Olympics and U.S. mid-term elections. Political spending will again drive more than $10 billion of spending acting as a further catalyst, lifting overall ad spend growth from 7.6 percent to the anticipated 9.4-percent growth forecast. 

“A year ago, we had expected U.S. advertising, marketing and related data spending to top $585 billion – but we exceeded that with a stronger than expected second half of the year, achieving $607.4 billion, in spite of the tariff shock,” said Winterberry Group Executive Chairman Bruce Biegel. “With moderate inflation and increasing use of machine learning and AI, the macroeconomics underlying the media market were surprisingly stable, leading to net growth after inflation.”

Media Channel Winners – Investments for AI Lead Data Related Spending To Top $30 Billion

“Video is the winner as TV converges,” Biegel said, “as the video format and device drive engagement irrespective of linear, social or CTV. Also, we are seeing significant investments in data infrastructure underway to support the rise of agentic AI, changing how marketing technology is used across the entire ecosystem. Major impacts are already being seen across all digital media channels.  As adoption accelerates the downstream impact is a rewiring agency business models- and the industry structure.”

While the overall increase in media spending was solid in 2025 (5.5-percent growth, nearly three times the growth of U.S. Gross Domestic Product), the shift in the mix of spend across channels was more important.  In 2022, 56.4 percent of all marketing spend was attributable to online channels. In 2025, that share had grown to 65.1 percent. 

U.S. Online and Offline Marketing Spend, 2022-2025 (2025 Estimate). Source: Winterberry Group, Outlook for Advertising, Marketing and Data 2026, January 2026.

Direct mail, linear television, radio, print, and magazine each posted declines exceeding 3 percent from 2024 to 2025. Meanwhile, across the digital spectrum, most online channels – search, social, display, video, CTV, and digital out-of-home -- exceeded well more than 5-percent growth, with the overall increase for online marketing up 11.1 percent. Spending on data, data services and data infrastructure to support all marketing increased by 3.5 percent to exceed a record $30 billion.

In 2026, spending declines in offline media will soften or, in some cases, reverse – even as offline’s overall market share from total spending continues to shift away.  While elections are a catalyst to lead direct mail and linear TV to both post gains this year, shopper marketing and sponsorships will soar, the latter aided particularly by global sporting events.  Digital will continue to thrive – growing by 12 percent in 2026, led by CTV, social, video, and creator marketing. Marketing-related data, data services and infrastructure spending are expected to grow by 8.7 percent to reach $33 billion this year.

Both the 2026 predictions and 2025 year in review are embodied in the report, “Outlook for Advertising, Marketing and Data 2026: Continuous Evolution” released today and announced, for the 20^th consecutive year, during a Marketing Club of New York function.

Among selected additional findings from the report:

• AI – THERE’S AN AGENT FOR THAT | Last year’s Generative AI fascinations are this year’s Agentic AI pursuits – though companies are still trying to ready their data for such machine learning. Creative production and media are leading areas for agentic AI adoption.
• TALENT CRISIS IN THE AI MAKING | Not all that AI investment is rosy. “We are seeing AI having immediate impact on media planning, buying and analyses,” Biegel said, “with some challenges in that entry-level jobs are being eliminated – the very people who make sure that ‘AI slop’ -- low-quality outputs -- are not occurring. Tomorrow’s talent crisis is being created now. A critical gap exists – without junior roles, who develops strategic expertise for senior positions? Who is there to filter AI results? The training pipeline cannot evaporate.” 
• MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS ARE NEAR RECORDS | Global mergers and acquisitions in the marketing field reached $4.9 trillion in 2025, the second highest year recorded. There is consolidation across the board – among agencies, media companies and marketing tech.
• CONVERGED TV IS A REALITY - LINEAR TV IS NOW AN EXTENSION FROM CONNECTED TV | The power dynamic has flipped. Linear TV is now an extension from streaming strategies – rather than the other way around. Media spend is focused on audience buying rather than network-first planning and spending.
• YESTERDAY’S INFLUENCER IS TODAY’S CREATOR | Creators are driving direct transactions on social platforms – by generating content that drives engagement and conversion. “Social commerce integration has become table stakes for creator partnerships,” according to the research. “Brands prioritize transaction capability over awareness metrics.”
• COMMERCE MEDIA – NOT JUST RETAIL RISES | Within digital ad categories, commerce media networks are gaining market spending share from open web display ad spending and other “walled gardens.” Brands prefer the closed-loop measurement -- intent, targeting, attribution, conversion -- provided by these vertical categories.
• AGENTIC SEARCH IS TRANSFORMING SEO AND MEDIA TRAFFIC | As AI-powered search has replaced traditional keyword strategies, “search growth moves from link driven to AI content driven citations and zero-click behavior,” Winterberry Group reported. Content optimization for AI training and answer engine snippets is a necessary complement to people-based discovery.
• SPOTLIGHT ON ‘CREATIVE INTELLIGENCE’ | Brands will spend $144.1 billion on global creative and content spend alone (non-working media) to support more than a $1 trillion in media spending. “Creative Intelligence” moves beyond media and audience intelligence – to understand why consumers engage. “CI is the ability to collect and analyze data on creative performance and apply insights – contextualized by audience and media – to measure and continuously optimize assets for effectiveness and measurement.”

“A convergence will happen in how creative is priced – likely as a percentage of working media,” Biegel said. “Today, we see pricing based on technology and platform licensing, asset volume-based pricing, CPM [cost per thousand] and impression-based models, and hybrid approaches. Tomorrow, it will be less a fixed cost and more a variable, performance-linked investment tied to media effectiveness.”  In essence, what works gets the compensation.

Results of the full study, as a PDF, are available for download from Winterberry Group: https://winterberrygroup.com/marketing-advertising-data-outlook-presentation-2026

ABOUT WINTERBERRY GROUP

Winterberry Group is a growth consultancy specializing in the intersecting disciplines of marketing, advertising, technology, data and analytics. We collaborate with stakeholders across those ecosystems—agencies, service providers, technology developers, brands, publishers and investor groups—leveraging deep industry expertise to build actionable strategies that spur growth and drive the creation of real and lasting stakeholder value. Learn more at winterberrygroup.com. 

Media Contact:
Ilisia Shuke
Winterberry Group
ishuke@winterberrygroup.com